You’ve probably heard someone say they can “feel it in their knees” when it’s about to rain.
For some, their hips tighten up before a storm; others feel their fingers stiffen when the cold sets in.
And most people who live with arthritis swear there’s a link between the weather and their pain.
But is it real or just an old wives’ tale that’s survived because it sounds convincing?
Let’s take a proper look at what the science says, why it might happen, and what you can actually do to stop your joints from feeling like they’re plotting against you every winter.
The science: myth or measurable?
Let’s start with the research.
A large review published in Pain Research and Management pulled together data from fourteen studies looking at osteoarthritis and the weather. The results?
- Lower temperatures were linked with more pain.
- High humidity made symptoms slightly worse.
- And changes in barometric pressure the air pressure that drops before rain were also linked with increased joint discomfort.
In simple terms: cold, damp, and pressure changes seem to make arthritis flare up for some people.
But before you start checking the forecast for excuses, it’s not that simple.
Another group of researchers in Australia tracked hundreds of people with back, hip, and knee pain over several months and found no clear link at all between pain and weather patterns.
So who’s right? Probably both, in their own way.
Some people genuinely are more sensitive to weather changes, while others aren’t affected in the slightest.
Pain is complicated — it’s not just about what’s happening in your joints; it’s about how your brain interprets what’s happening. If you’re expecting to hurt more when it’s cold, your nervous system can make that prediction a reality.
That doesn’t mean it’s “all in your head” — it means the mind and body are constantly in conversation, and the weather is just one voice in the mix.
How the weather might influence pain
Here are a few of the theories scientists have put forward:
1. Changes in air pressure
When the barometric pressure drops — as it often does before rain — the air around you exerts slightly less pressure on your body.
That tiny shift can allow tissues inside the joint to expand a little, which may irritate nerve endings or increase pressure inside the joint capsule.
Think of it like flying on an aeroplane — your ears “pop” because of the change in pressure.
Inside a stiff, inflamed joint, even that small change could be enough to make you notice it.
2. Temperature and fluid thickness
Cold weather changes the viscosity of synovial fluid — the natural “oil” that keeps your joints moving smoothly.
Lower temperatures make that fluid thicker, so movement feels stiffer and less comfortable.
That’s partly why your knees feel fine after ten minutes of walking but sore when you first get up on a cold morning — the warmth and movement help the fluid flow again.
3. Muscle stiffness and movement
When it’s cold, we move less.
We hunch our shoulders, walk shorter distances, and spend more time indoors sitting down.
Less movement means less joint lubrication, weaker supporting muscles, and stiffer connective tissue.
So while it might feel like the weather caused your pain, part of it might just be inactivity sneaking up on you.
4. The psychological factor
Pain is a whole-body experience — it’s sensory, emotional, and cognitive.
When the weather’s grey, wet, and miserable, mood drops. Low mood changes how pain is processed in the brain, often amplifying it.
If you expect a flare-up every time it rains, your nervous system can start preparing for pain before it even arrives. It’s not imagination — it’s conditioning.
And who wouldn’t want to understand that better, if it helps them feel more in control?
So, what can you actually do?
You can’t change the weather, but you can absolutely change how your body responds to it.
Here are some practical, evidence-informed strategies that help most people with arthritis feel and move better — no matter what the forecast says.
1. Keep warm
This sounds obvious, but it works.
Warmth helps muscles relax, increases blood flow, and makes joint fluid less viscous.
That means less stiffness and smoother movement.
- Use a heat pack or hot-water bottle on stiff joints.
- Have a warm shower or bath before you head out.
- Layer your clothing — thin, breathable layers trap warmth far better than one thick jumper.
Even compression sleeves on the knees or elbows can make a noticeable difference.
2. Keep moving
Movement is medicine.
Gentle activity keeps the joints lubricated, strengthens muscles around them, and maintains flexibility.
Try to stay active year-round, but especially in colder months.
Walking, cycling, yoga, or swimming are all excellent.
If outdoor activity isn’t appealing, indoor options like a stationary bike or resistance bands will do the job.
It’s tempting to hibernate when it’s cold, but that’s when your body needs movement most.
3. Warm up before exercise
Jumping straight into activity when you’re cold is a fast route to stiff, sore joints.
Spend five to ten minutes doing gentle range-of-motion work before you start.
For example:
- Leg swings or marching on the spot before a walk.
- Gentle arm circles or shoulder rolls before upper-body work.
Warming up increases blood flow and tissue elasticity, making movement smoother and less painful.
4. Manage your workload on “bad” days
If your joints are flaring and it’s freezing outside, that’s probably not the day to lift heavy furniture or run hill sprints.
Adjust your load — not to avoid movement entirely, but to give your body what it can handle that day.
Small, frequent bouts of activity often feel better than one long, intense session.
5. Mind your recovery
Cold, damp weather can affect how quickly you recover after activity.
So, double down on sleep, hydration, and nutrition — the unglamorous basics that make a massive difference.
Make sure you’re eating enough protein, getting your omega-3s, and spending time outside when there’s daylight.
Your body heals better when your system is balanced — and who wouldn’t want that?
6. Track your patterns
If you suspect the weather affects you, keep a simple diary.
Note your pain levels, activity, sleep, and the day’s weather conditions.
After a few weeks, you’ll see patterns emerge.
That information helps you plan — not to avoid activity, but to anticipate when you might need more warmth, more movement, or just a bit more patience.
The balanced truth
So, does weather really affect arthritis?
Yes — for some people, under certain conditions, it probably does.
Cold, damp, or pressure changes seem to make pain worse for a proportion of patients.
But the relationship isn’t strong or consistent enough to say weather causes pain.
It’s more likely that weather interacts with many other factors: inflammation, muscle tension, mood, movement, and perception.
The good news? The same strategies that help you cope with the cold — staying active, maintaining muscle strength, eating well, managing stress — are the very same ones that protect your joints long term.
And while you can’t control the climate, you can absolutely control your conditioning.
So next time someone says, “It’s the damp — that’s why my knees are sore,” you can smile and say,
“Maybe. But my exercise plan and warm bath will fix that quicker than complaining about the rain.”
Key takeaways
- The link between weather and arthritis pain is real for some people, but not universal.
- Cold, damp, and low pressure conditions are the most commonly reported triggers.
- The mechanisms likely involve changes in air pressure, joint fluid viscosity, muscle stiffness, and mood.
- Movement, warmth, and consistency are your best defences.
- You can’t change the weather — but you can absolutely change how your body handles it.
Written by Ed Thompson, Physiotherapist and Clinic Owner at Instant Physio.
If you found this helpful, subscribe to The Active Life Newsletter or listen to the full podcast episode — E7: Does the Weather Affect Arthritis? — for the practical version you can listen to on your next walk.